Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.44 – 597.82

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 653

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.1 ±12.4

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 94.1Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 5.37Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3876Mabton LugNutz

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 41.97Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 754.8 ±8.2

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 272.57Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 121.81Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 203.44Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4450, 3219, 3876

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4450, 3219, 3876

Auto

34.4 26%

Teleop

55.5 41%

Endgame

44.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2046, 3663, 9023

/ 100 compat

Projected

597.8 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2046, 3663, 9023

Auto

113.8 19%

Teleop

343.0 58%

Endgame

137.9 23%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.4pts

Blue projected score597.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -456.4
Score range: 106–633
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 785 vs event baseline 196.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355.1Season APEX754.8

34.4Auto113.8

55.5Teleop343

44.9Endgame137.9

9Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	128
teleop	69	432
endgame	46	93
foul	0	0
total	132	653

Result

Final score

132 – 653

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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