Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.07 – 58.96

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.4 ±11.2

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 183.7Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2906Sentinel Prime Robotics

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX -5.02Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 121.39Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.9 ±13.9

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 30.41Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2929Emeral Ridge JAGBOTS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 15.39Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10455Bison Dynamics

Season APEX 89Event APEX 13.16Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4469, 2906, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4469, 2906, 10079

Auto

50.7 17%

Teleop

189.6 63%

Endgame

59.2 20%

Strengths

· 4469 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2980, 2929, 10455

/ 100 compat

Projected

59 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2980, 2929, 10455

Auto

30.1 53%

Teleop

8.3 15%

Endgame

18.3 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score300.1pts

Blue projected score59pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 241.1
Score range: 24–335
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 196.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.4Season APEX215.9

50.7Auto30.1

189.6Teleop8.3

59.2Endgame18.3

18Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	12
teleop	199	19
endgame	60	20
foul	0	0
total	340	51

Result

Final score

340 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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