Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.73 – 123.41

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337 ±12.2

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 35.49Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 113.73Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 40.51Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 443 ±11.7

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 70.26Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX 37.46Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8303GatorBytes

Season APEX 31.7Event APEX 15.69Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5295, 1778, 3786

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5295, 1778, 3786

Auto

40.8 22%

Teleop

104.4 56%

Endgame

41.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2910, 3574, 8303

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2910, 3574, 8303

Auto

1.5 1%

Teleop

74.5 66%

Endgame

36.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.7pts

Blue projected score123.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.3
Score range: 87–226
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 198.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337Season APEX443

40.8Auto1.5

104.4Teleop74.5

41.7Endgame36.7

86Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	9
teleop	105	7
endgame	42	1
foul	0	0
total	167	17

Result

Final score

167 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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