Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.96 – 230.59

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

265 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 83.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.7 ±11.7

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 49.66Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 73.89Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3876Mabton LugNutz

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 25.41Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.7 ±11.7

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 35.17Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 16.43Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 178.99Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7627, 2910, 3876

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7627, 2910, 3876

Auto

28.3 20%

Teleop

76.4 53%

Endgame

38.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5295, 3070, 360

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5295, 3070, 360

Auto

43.9 19%

Teleop

139.3 61%

Endgame

45.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149pts

Blue projected score230.6pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.6
Score range: 109–271
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 547 vs event baseline 219.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.7Season APEX381.7

28.3Auto43.9

76.4Teleop139.3

38.4Endgame45.7

24Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	51
teleop	142	163
endgame	79	68
foul	5	0
total	265	282

Result

Final score

265 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 83.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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