Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.98 – 190.01

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 64 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.1 ±12

2927NEST Robotics

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 1.79Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -7.33Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 257.52Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286 ±12.2

3876Mabton LugNutz

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 41.43Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 119.21Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 29.37Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2927, 3219, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

252 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2927, 3219, 2046

Auto

45.8 19%

Teleop

146.6 60%

Endgame

51.7 21%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3876, 4512, 3070

/ 100 compat

Projected

190 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3876, 4512, 3070

Auto

30.6 17%

Teleop

96.6 53%

Endgame

55.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score252pts

Blue projected score190pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62
Score range: 155–287
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 544 vs event baseline 192.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.1Season APEX286

45.8Auto30.6

146.6Teleop96.6

51.7Endgame55.3

48Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	49
teleop	156	95
endgame	122	33
foul	10	0
total	367	177

Result

Final score

367 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 64 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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