Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137 – 219.74

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.8 ±10.5

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 9.36Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 55.63Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 72.01Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.2 ±12

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 177.88Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2906Sentinel Prime Robotics

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 4.66Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3049BremerTron

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 37.2Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8051, 3786, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

137 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8051, 3786, 2910

Auto

33.4 24%

Teleop

84.1 61%

Endgame

20.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9023, 2906, 3049

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 2906, 3049

Auto

43.3 19%

Teleop

112.1 50%

Endgame

68.2 31%

Strengths

· 9023 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137pts

Blue projected score219.7pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.7
Score range: 103–254
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 186.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.8Season APEX425.2

33.4Auto43.3

84.1Teleop112.1

20.1Endgame68.2

20Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	38
teleop	94	154
endgame	47	44
foul	0	15
total	159	251

Result

Final score

159 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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