Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.14 – 74.61

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.3 ±12

4173Bark Bots

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 55.87Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 215.64Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10455Bison Dynamics

Season APEX 89Event APEX 20.63Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.3 ±11.2

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -39.63Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX -9.31Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 123.55Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4173, 2046, 10455

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4173, 2046, 10455

Auto

53.0 19%

Teleop

183.5 65%

Endgame

47.6 17%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8896, 5295, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8896, 5295, 4450

Auto

11.8 15%

Teleop

46.0 60%

Endgame

19.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score292.1pts

Blue projected score74.6pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 217.5
Score range: 43–324
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 180.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.3Season APEX402.3

53Auto11.8

183.5Teleop46

47.6Endgame19.3

40Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	21
teleop	188	67
endgame	80	17
foul	0	40
total	340	145

Result

Final score

340 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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