Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.61 – 132.72

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 287

Prediction missed · off by 153.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150 ±12.1

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 86.18Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 67.67Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 54.76Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.3 ±11.7

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 70.35Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 44.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 17.49Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7627, 3393, 3070

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7627, 3393, 3070

Auto

41.1 20%

Teleop

119.3 58%

Endgame

46.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1778, 3663, 4579

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1778, 3663, 4579

Auto

36.2 29%

Teleop

73.3 58%

Endgame

17.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score208.6pts

Blue projected score132.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.9
Score range: 100–242
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 182.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150Season APEX354.3

41.1Auto36.2

119.3Teleop73.3

46.7Endgame17.2

46Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	75
teleop	16	149
endgame	5	58
foul	0	5
total	56	287

Result

Final score

56 – 287

Prediction missed · off by 153.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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