Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.53 – 114.03

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 74.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.7 ±13.9

4173Bark Bots

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 60.97Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3049BremerTron

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 60.49Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 37.07Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.7 ±12.4

2929Emeral Ridge JAGBOTS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 14.7Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 92.39Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2906Sentinel Prime Robotics

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 6.94Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4173, 3049, 5295

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4173, 3049, 5295

Auto

36.8 22%

Teleop

99.8 60%

Endgame

30.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2929, 4089, 2906

/ 100 compat

Projected

114 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2929, 4089, 2906

Auto

31.5 28%

Teleop

51.2 45%

Endgame

31.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.5pts

Blue projected score114pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.5
Score range: 80–193
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 189.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.7Season APEX412.7

36.8Auto31.5

99.8Teleop51.2

30.3Endgame31.5

46Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	65
teleop	26	38
endgame	8	43
foul	0	5
total	46	151

Result

Final score

46 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 74.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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