Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.52 – 114.49

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.6 ±12.2

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 0.78Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 78.29Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 40.45Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.1 ±13.3

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 11.7Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 91.56Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10455Bison Dynamics

Season APEX 89Event APEX 11.23Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4579, 7627, 8051

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4579, 7627, 8051

Auto

52.9 45%

Teleop

56.9 48%

Endgame

8.2 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3219, 3393, 10455

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3219, 3393, 10455

Auto

6.8 7%

Teleop

57.9 55%

Endgame

39.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.5pts

Blue projected score114.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5
Score range: 79–155
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 194.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.6Season APEX179.1

52.9Auto6.8

56.9Teleop57.9

8.2Endgame39.7

42Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	13
teleop	59	5
endgame	15	1
foul	30	0
total	128	19

Result

Final score

128 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 52 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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