Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

241.71 – 270.75

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

270 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 123.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.6 ±10.7

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 182.03Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 10Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX 49.68Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 558.1 ±10

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 167.92Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8302⚡️ Ｎｉ-ＴＲＯ ⚡️

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -4.92Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 107.75Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9023, 5683, 3574

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 5683, 3574

Auto

42.1 18%

Teleop

138.9 61%

Endgame

47.5 21%

Strengths

· 9023 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2046, 8302, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2046, 8302, 10079

Auto

72.0 27%

Teleop

133.5 49%

Endgame

65.2 24%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score241.7pts

Blue projected score270.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29
Score range: 209–304
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 760 vs event baseline 185.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.6Season APEX558.1

42.1Auto72

138.9Teleop133.5

47.5Endgame65.2

72Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	79
teleop	121	307
endgame	93	104
foul	5	0
total	270	490

Result

Final score

270 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 123.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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