Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

202.03 – 246.7

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 59.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.1 ±12.2

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 70.75Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 75.46Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2927NEST Robotics

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 55.82Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.4 ±12.2

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 50.08Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11347Bronco Brigade

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 69.69Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 126.93Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3070, 1778, 2927

/ 100 compat

Projected

202 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3070, 1778, 2927

Auto

51.3 26%

Teleop

113.4 57%

Endgame

33.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3786, 11347, 4512

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3786, 11347, 4512

Auto

22.4 10%

Teleop

124.6 54%

Endgame

85.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202pts

Blue projected score246.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.7
Score range: 168–281
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 186.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.1Season APEX351.4

51.3Auto22.4

113.4Teleop124.6

33.8Endgame85.2

102Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	25
teleop	104	70
endgame	25	56
foul	0	5
total	174	156

Result

Final score

174 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 59.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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