Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

442.34 – 335.38

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 121.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 723.7 ±9.3

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 181.9Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 83.47Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 176.97Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.7 ±9.4

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 131.86Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 206.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -2.61Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4089, 8051, 4469

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4089, 8051, 4469

Auto

83.0 19%

Teleop

253.0 59%

Endgame

95.7 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4512, 9023, 8896

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4512, 9023, 8896

Auto

57.5 18%

Teleop

186.5 59%

Endgame

71.2 23%

Strengths

· 9023 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score442.3pts

Blue projected score335.4pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107
Score range: 295–482
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 219.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

723.7Season APEX544.7

83Auto57.5

253Teleop186.5

95.7Endgame71.2

30Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	19
teleop	179	140
endgame	13	86
foul	5	20
total	270	265

Result

Final score

270 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 121.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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