Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.42 – 260.75

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 59.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.4 ±13.9

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 57.77Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2906Sentinel Prime Robotics

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 49.34Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9446C Cubed

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX -3.69Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.9 ±11.7

4173Bark Bots

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 79.98Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 120.22Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 60.55Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5295, 2906, 9446

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5295, 2906, 9446

Auto

27.2 30%

Teleop

33.9 37%

Endgame

30.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4173, 360, 3393

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4173, 360, 3393

Auto

40.9 16%

Teleop

157.3 60%

Endgame

62.0 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.4pts

Blue projected score260.8pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -157.3
Score range: 69–295
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 189.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.4Season APEX402.9

27.2Auto40.9

33.9Teleop157.3

30.7Endgame62

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	56
teleop	11	154
endgame	12	93
foul	0	0
total	27	303

Result

Final score

27 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 59.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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