Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

181.65 – 215.68

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

235 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.5 ±11.7

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 25.97Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2927NEST Robotics

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 45.32Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 110.36Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 680.4 ±10.2

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 140.66Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 9.19Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 65.83Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3786, 2927, 4089

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3786, 2927, 4089

Auto

42.0 24%

Teleop

99.2 56%

Endgame

36.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9023, 4579, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 4579, 2910

Auto

24.5 12%

Teleop

121.0 58%

Endgame

62.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.6pts

Blue projected score215.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34
Score range: 149–249
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 183.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.5Season APEX680.4

42Auto24.5

99.2Teleop121

36.6Endgame62.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	33
teleop	109	203
endgame	46	80
foul	5	5
total	235	321

Result

Final score

235 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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