Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
99.32 – 112.21
46%54%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
14 – 125
Prediction correct · off by 49.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.1 ±12.8
Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -7.78Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 85.42Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 89Event APEX 21.68Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.2 ±13.3
Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 57.98Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 45.42Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 31.7Event APEX 8.81Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8896, 3876, 10455
38
/ 100 compatProjected
99.3 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 8896, 3876, 10455
Auto
-4.8 0%
Teleop
43.5 54%
Endgame
42.0 52%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3070, 3049, 8303
49
/ 100 compatProjected
112.2 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 3070, 3049, 8303
Auto
20.0 17%
Teleop
72.6 63%
Endgame
21.9 19%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.68
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score99.3pts
Blue projected score112.2pts
Red win probability46%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -12.9
- Score range
- 65–146
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
234.1Season APEX143.2
-4.8Auto20
43.5Teleop72.6
42Endgame21.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 7 | 14 |
| teleop | 6 | 93 |
| endgame | 1 | 18 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 14 | 125 |
Result
Final score
14 – 125
Prediction correct · off by 49.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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