Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.41 – 220.34

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 365

Prediction missed · off by 101.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.3 ±12.2

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX 34.38Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 113.07Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 79.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576 ±10

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 91.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX 5.18Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 123.92Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 949, 7627, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 949, 7627, 3663

Auto

37.4 17%

Teleop

113.3 50%

Endgame

74.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4512, 3574, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4512, 3574, 2046

Auto

42.1 20%

Teleop

107.9 52%

Endgame

56.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score227.4pts

Blue projected score220.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.1
Score range: 187–260
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 534 vs event baseline 185.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.3Season APEX576

37.4Auto42.1

113.3Teleop107.9

74.1Endgame56.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	52
teleop	88	200
endgame	19	93
foul	0	20
total	169	365

Result

Final score

169 – 365

Prediction missed · off by 101.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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