Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.18 – 118.78

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

405 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 141.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 519.8 ±10.8

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 62.53Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 80.07Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4173Bark Bots

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 32.58Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.6 ±13.9

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 10.72Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 75.48Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 32.58Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10079, 9023, 4173

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10079, 9023, 4173

Auto

39.4 23%

Teleop

88.4 52%

Endgame

43.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4579, 5295, 2980

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4579, 5295, 2980

Auto

32.0 27%

Teleop

59.8 50%

Endgame

26.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score175.2pts

Blue projected score118.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.4
Score range: 87–207
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 178.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

519.8Season APEX169.6

39.4Auto32

88.4Teleop59.8

43.1Endgame26.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	18
teleop	230	23
endgame	83	24
foul	0	0
total	405	65

Result

Final score

405 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 141.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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