Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.98 – 259.14

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

318 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.7 ±9.4

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 99.04Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 94.3Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 97.64Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.5 ±11

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 81.12Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 68.18Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 109.84Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 1512, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

291 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 1512, 839

Auto

24.5 9%

Teleop

179.4 65%

Endgame

70.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2342, 1729, 8085

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2342, 1729, 8085

Auto

48.8 19%

Teleop

131.2 51%

Endgame

79.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score291pts

Blue projected score259.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.8
Score range: 217–333
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 602 vs event baseline 235.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.7Season APEX363.5

24.5Auto48.8

179.4Teleop131.2

70Endgame79.1

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	47
teleop	173	164
endgame	111	73
foul	0	0
total	318	284

Result

Final score

318 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Match videos

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