Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

568.63 – 294.09

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

644 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 799.3 ±8.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 255.55Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 16.93Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 296.15Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.7 ±9.4

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 99.59Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 94.96Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 99.54Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 8708, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

568.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 8708, 6329

Auto

125.8 22%

Teleop

311.7 55%

Endgame

132.1 23%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4909, 1512, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 1512, 839

Auto

23.5 8%

Teleop

184.2 66%

Endgame

73.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score568.6pts

Blue projected score294.1pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 274.5
Score range: 253–610
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 934 vs event baseline 229.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

799.3Season APEX426.7

125.8Auto23.5

311.7Teleop184.2

132.1Endgame73.5

1Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	138	31
teleop	379	163
endgame	127	56
foul	0	40
total	644	290

Result

Final score

644 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Match videos

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