Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

502.01 – 59.52

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

538 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 713 ±9.3

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 237.1Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 35.01Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 229.9Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212 ±11.6

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX -2.05Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 27.13Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 34.44Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 195, 11175, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

502 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 195, 11175, 5687

Auto

123.2 25%

Teleop

287.9 58%

Endgame

85.7 17%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9096, 6933, 10910

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9096, 6933, 10910

Auto

27.8 46%

Teleop

2.5 4%

Endgame

30.0 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score502pts

Blue projected score59.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 442.5
Score range: 19–543
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 648 vs event baseline 227.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

713Season APEX212

123.2Auto27.8

287.9Teleop2.5

85.7Endgame30

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	148	21
teleop	311	53
endgame	74	36
foul	5	0
total	538	110

Result

Final score

538 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 pts

Match videos

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