Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

266.85 – 274.38

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

327 – 395

Prediction correct · off by 90.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.6 ±10.5

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 31.18Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 113.59Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 122.08Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.7 ±9.4

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 91.5Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 89.71Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 93.17Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6153, 166, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6153, 166, 319

Auto

30.8 12%

Teleop

152.4 61%

Endgame

67.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4909, 1512, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 1512, 839

Auto

18.9 7%

Teleop

176.2 65%

Endgame

75.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score266.9pts

Blue projected score274.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.5
Score range: 226–315
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 722 vs event baseline 225.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.6Season APEX426.7

30.8Auto18.9

152.4Teleop176.2

67.6Endgame75.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	44
teleop	198	231
endgame	103	70
foul	5	50
total	327	395

Result

Final score

327 – 395

Prediction correct · off by 90.4 pts

Match videos

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