Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

570.04 – 147.99

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

579 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 799.3 ±8.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 256.96Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 17.35Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 295.73Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243 ±13.9

9101Green Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 29.64Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 64.25Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 54.1Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 8708, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

570 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 8708, 6329

Auto

133.0 23%

Teleop

300.9 53%

Endgame

136.2 24%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9101, 2523, 8421

/ 100 compat

Projected

148 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9101, 2523, 8421

Auto

36.5 26%

Teleop

73.6 52%

Endgame

32.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score570pts

Blue projected score148pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 422.1
Score range: 108–610
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 675 vs event baseline 223.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

799.3Season APEX243

133Auto36.5

300.9Teleop73.6

136.2Endgame32.5

17Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	23
teleop	367	42
endgame	115	16
foul	0	15
total	579	96

Result

Final score

579 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Match videos

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