Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

574.31 – 285

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

622 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 799.3 ±8.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 258.16Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 18.19Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 297.96Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.6 ±10.5

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 37.5Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 117.98Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 129.52Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 8708, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

574.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 8708, 6329

Auto

125.8 22%

Teleop

315.4 55%

Endgame

131.4 23%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6153, 166, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

285 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6153, 166, 319

Auto

36.4 13%

Teleop

160.0 59%

Endgame

75.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score574.3pts

Blue projected score285pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 289.3
Score range: 242–617
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 824 vs event baseline 241.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

799.3Season APEX455.6

125.8Auto36.4

315.4Teleop160

131.4Endgame75.3

3Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	143	33
teleop	350	103
endgame	129	66
foul	0	0
total	622	202

Result

Final score

622 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 pts

Match videos

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