Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

284.34 – 294.5

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

288 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 19.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.6 ±10.5

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 37.33Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 117.8Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 129.21Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.7 ±9.4

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 100.42Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 95.37Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 98.71Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6153, 166, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6153, 166, 319

Auto

34.9 13%

Teleop

165.0 60%

Endgame

75.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4909, 1512, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 1512, 839

Auto

25.4 9%

Teleop

179.0 64%

Endgame

75.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score284.3pts

Blue projected score294.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.2
Score range: 241–338
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 241.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.6Season APEX426.7

34.9Auto25.4

165Teleop179

75.5Endgame75.5

10Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	49
teleop	122	148
endgame	72	48
foul	45	15
total	288	260

Result

Final score

288 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 19.1 pts

Match videos

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