Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.6 – 163.57

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 60.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.8 ±12.4

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX 77.19Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 21.08Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 50.33Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.7 ±10.7

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 22.43Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 134.57Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 6.57Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1247, 5687, 10937

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1247, 5687, 10937

Auto

34.6 23%

Teleop

108.0 73%

Endgame

6.0 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 138, 125, 9096

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 138, 125, 9096

Auto

26.8 16%

Teleop

94.7 58%

Endgame

42.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.6pts

Blue projected score163.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15
Score range: 115–198
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 188.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.8Season APEX462.7

34.6Auto26.8

108Teleop94.7

6Endgame42.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	56
teleop	59	117
endgame	33	75
foul	0	15
total	170	263

Result

Final score

170 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 60.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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