Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.2 – 88.33

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.5 ±14.4

11468Lisbon Panther Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 14.08Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 95.22Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 73.9Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.8 ±11.6

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 93.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX -6.22Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 1.31Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11468, 839, 2342

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11468, 839, 2342

Auto

12.0 7%

Teleop

100.6 61%

Endgame

51.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8085, 9096, 11269

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8085, 9096, 11269

Auto

25.4 25%

Teleop

44.9 45%

Endgame

29.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183.2pts

Blue projected score88.3pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.9
Score range: 48–223
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 224.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.5Season APEX296.8

12Auto25.4

100.6Teleop44.9

51.9Endgame29.4

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	43
teleop	72	65
endgame	49	35
foul	0	0
total	158	143

Result

Final score

158 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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