Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.23 – 62.31

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

285 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.2 ±14

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 151.17Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 46.56Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10108Hazard5

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX -2.5Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.6 ±12.7

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 26.26Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 27.78Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10138VikingBot

Season APEX 39Event APEX 8.27Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1073, 138, 10108

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1073, 138, 10108

Auto

21.6 12%

Teleop

97.6 55%

Endgame

58.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6933, 6153, 10138

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6933, 6153, 10138

Auto

25.1 39%

Teleop

23.3 36%

Endgame

16.1 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195.2pts

Blue projected score62.3pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.9
Score range: 22–235
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 223.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.2Season APEX161.6

21.6Auto25.1

97.6Teleop23.3

58.1Endgame16.1

9Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	22
teleop	156	41
endgame	83	34
foul	0	15
total	285	112

Result

Final score

285 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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