Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

8.69 – 54.62

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.4 ±12.8

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX -28.61Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10138VikingBot

Season APEX 39Event APEX 5.42Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 31.88Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.8 ±12.2

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 60.27Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX -1.14Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX -4.51Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10937, 10138, 10910

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10937, 10138, 10910

Auto

24.9 100%

Teleop

-18.3 0%

Endgame

-0.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1729, 10945, 9096

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1729, 10945, 9096

Auto

25.9 46%

Teleop

9.3 16%

Endgame

21.7 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score8.7pts

Blue projected score54.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.9
Score range: -32–96
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 95 vs event baseline 225.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.4Season APEX201.8

24.9Auto25.9

-18.3Teleop9.3

-0.1Endgame21.7

42Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	40
teleop	9	11
endgame	3	7
foul	15	0
total	37	58

Result

Final score

37 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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