Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

216.2 – 594.33

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

205 – 620

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.3 ±12.2

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 30.03Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 147.96Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 38.21Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 882.6 ±8.1

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 229.34Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 249.54Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 115.45Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6153, 95, 10066

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6153, 95, 10066

Auto

30.8 14%

Teleop

128.1 60%

Endgame

54.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5687, 125, 166

/ 100 compat

Projected

594.3 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5687, 125, 166

Auto

122.8 21%

Teleop

328.8 56%

Endgame

138.8 24%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216.2pts

Blue projected score594.3pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -378.1
Score range: 176–634
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 825 vs event baseline 219.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.3Season APEX882.6

30.8Auto122.8

128.1Teleop328.8

54.6Endgame138.8

13Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	189
teleop	126	329
endgame	47	102
foul	0	0
total	205	620

Result

Final score

205 – 620

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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