Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.99 – 176.27

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.7 ±12.2

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 48.07Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 38.57Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 91.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±13.2

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 85.39Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10108Hazard5

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX -1.67Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 92.55Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8421, 138, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

178 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8421, 138, 839

Auto

24.7 14%

Teleop

99.4 57%

Endgame

50.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1512, 10108, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1512, 10108, 4909

Auto

9.7 6%

Teleop

114.1 66%

Endgame

48.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178pts

Blue projected score176.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.7
Score range: 136–218
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 445 vs event baseline 219.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.7Season APEX346.6

24.7Auto9.7

99.4Teleop114.1

50.5Endgame48.5

8Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	16
teleop	120	114
endgame	62	55
foul	50	0
total	260	185

Result

Final score

260 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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