Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.28 – 212.65

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

516 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 127.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.6 ±11.2

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 214.05Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 30.14Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 65.09Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.7 ±12.4

6690MV roboPride

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 47.61Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 160.74Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 4.3Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5687, 8421, 1512

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5687, 8421, 1512

Auto

66.6 22%

Teleop

186.3 60%

Endgame

55.1 18%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6690, 1073, 10945

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6690, 1073, 10945

Auto

30.4 15%

Teleop

115.6 56%

Endgame

58.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score309.3pts

Blue projected score212.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.6
Score range: 174–348
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 218.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.6Season APEX342.7

66.6Auto30.4

186.3Teleop115.6

55.1Endgame58.8

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	121	13
teleop	282	73
endgame	103	74
foul	10	5
total	516	165

Result

Final score

516 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 127.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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