Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

158.95 – 259.82

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 132.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.1 ±11.1

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 106.01Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 29.99Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 22.95Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.2 ±14.5

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX -9.51Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 253.07Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10108Hazard5

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 16.26Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 166, 138, 6153

/ 100 compat

Projected

159 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 166, 138, 6153

Auto

17.9 11%

Teleop

92.9 59%

Endgame

45.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10937, 195, 10108

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10937, 195, 10108

Auto

55.9 22%

Teleop

128.5 51%

Endgame

66.3 26%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159pts

Blue projected score259.8pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.9
Score range: 120–299
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 219.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.1Season APEX385.2

17.9Auto55.9

92.9Teleop128.5

45.9Endgame66.3

24Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	22
teleop	116	53
endgame	82	26
foul	30	0
total	266	101

Result

Final score

266 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 132.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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