Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

408.99 – 390.63

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

360 – 373

Prediction missed · off by 33.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.5 ±11.2

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 300.2Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 97.38Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10138VikingBot

Season APEX 39Event APEX 11.41Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 527.8 ±11.4

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 57.42Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 75.87Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 257.34Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6329, 839, 10138

/ 100 compat

Projected

409 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6329, 839, 10138

Auto

87.5 22%

Teleop

213.6 53%

Endgame

104.5 26%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2523, 2342, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2523, 2342, 125

Auto

77.2 20%

Teleop

199.0 52%

Endgame

104.7 27%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score409pts

Blue projected score390.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.4
Score range: 352–448
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 733 vs event baseline 216.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

562.5Season APEX527.8

87.5Auto77.2

213.6Teleop199

104.5Endgame104.7

8Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	93
teleop	227	184
endgame	54	96
foul	0	0
total	360	373

Result

Final score

360 – 373

Prediction missed · off by 33.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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