Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.03 – 119.68

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.5 ±11.7

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX -20.04Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 127.73Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 15.34Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.8 ±11.4

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 83.62Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 7.03Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 29.03Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1247, 319, 8708

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1247, 319, 8708

Auto

7.0 6%

Teleop

78.9 67%

Endgame

31.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4909, 11269, 10066

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 11269, 10066

Auto

20.5 16%

Teleop

75.2 60%

Endgame

30.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123pts

Blue projected score119.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.3
Score range: 81–162
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 217.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.5Season APEX367.8

7Auto20.5

78.9Teleop75.2

31.7Endgame30.4

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	15
teleop	137	105
endgame	44	74
foul	0	0
total	199	194

Result

Final score

199 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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