Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.04 – 72.86

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.7 ±12.4

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX -17.16Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 95.66Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6690MV roboPride

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 35.54Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.3 ±15.3

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 33.37Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11468Lisbon Panther Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 7.76Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 31.73Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10937, 166, 6690

/ 100 compat

Projected

114 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10937, 166, 6690

Auto

16.6 15%

Teleop

58.0 52%

Endgame

36.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6933, 11468, 8421

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6933, 11468, 8421

Auto

29.8 42%

Teleop

22.7 32%

Endgame

19.2 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114pts

Blue projected score72.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.2
Score range: 34–153
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 218.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.7Season APEX214.3

16.6Auto29.8

58Teleop22.7

36.5Endgame19.2

46Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	9
teleop	116	34
endgame	50	34
foul	0	0
total	204	77

Result

Final score

204 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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