Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

329.24 – 249.37

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

447 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 90.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.6 ±13.5

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 201.5Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 123.25Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10108Hazard5

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 4.49Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361 ±10.4

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 42.65Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 99.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 107.49Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5687, 95, 10108

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5687, 95, 10108

Auto

78.6 24%

Teleop

193.7 59%

Endgame

57.8 18%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11175, 8085, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11175, 8085, 839

Auto

39.6 16%

Teleop

145.9 59%

Endgame

63.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score329.2pts

Blue projected score249.4pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.9
Score range: 210–368
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 633 vs event baseline 216.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.6Season APEX361

78.6Auto39.6

193.7Teleop145.9

57.8Endgame63.1

31Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	26
teleop	288	119
endgame	83	41
foul	15	0
total	447	186

Result

Final score

447 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 90.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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