Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.06 – 440.45

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 471

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.3 ±12.2

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 4.39Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 57.48Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 4.19Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 596.6 ±9.4

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 99.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 95.34Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 245.65Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8708, 2523, 11269

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8708, 2523, 11269

Auto

15.0 23%

Teleop

25.4 40%

Endgame

23.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 839, 1512, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.5 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 839, 1512, 125

Auto

68.4 16%

Teleop

245.2 58%

Endgame

112.3 26%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.1pts

Blue projected score440.5pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -374.4
Score range: 20–486
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 254.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.3Season APEX596.6

15Auto68.4

25.4Teleop245.2

23.9Endgame112.3

13Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	74
teleop	47	273
endgame	23	124
foul	0	0
total	96	471

Result

Final score

96 – 471

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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