Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

384.9 – 115.72

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

431 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 563.9 ±12.4

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 21.94Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 61.42Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 301.54Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.2 ±10

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 70.43Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 18.63Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 26.66Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10066, 2523, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10066, 2523, 6329

Auto

109.5 29%

Teleop

179.4 48%

Endgame

88.5 23%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4909, 10910, 138

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 10910, 138

Auto

19.5 17%

Teleop

72.1 62%

Endgame

24.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.75 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score384.9pts

Blue projected score115.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 269.2
Score range: 77–424
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 655 vs event baseline 214.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

563.9Season APEX361.2

109.5Auto19.5

179.4Teleop72.1

88.5Endgame24.5

18Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	33
teleop	249	130
endgame	103	61
foul	0	0
total	431	224

Result

Final score

431 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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