Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

356.05 – 224.88

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

453 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 61.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533.6 ±10.5

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 40.12Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 246.09Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 69.84Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.6 ±11.2

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 160.17Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX -7.98Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 72.69Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1729, 195, 2342

/ 100 compat

Projected

356 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1729, 195, 2342

Auto

64.4 18%

Teleop

186.0 53%

Endgame

98.6 28%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1073, 1247, 1512

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1073, 1247, 1512

Auto

10.9 5%

Teleop

124.3 59%

Endgame

74.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score356pts

Blue projected score224.9pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.2
Score range: 187–394
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 652 vs event baseline 212.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533.6Season APEX399.6

64.4Auto10.9

186Teleop124.3

98.6Endgame74.7

56Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	16
teleop	216	140
endgame	121	43
foul	15	0
total	453	199

Result

Final score

453 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 61.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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