Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.02 – 139.38

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 135.5 ±13.9

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX -6.51Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10138VikingBot

Season APEX 39Event APEX 11.48Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9101Green Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 30.05Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.1 ±9.8

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 88.59Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 36.95Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 13.84Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10945, 10138, 9101

/ 100 compat

Projected

35 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10945, 10138, 9101

Auto

29.6 89%

Teleop

2.1 6%

Endgame

1.6 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 166, 11175, 8708

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 166, 11175, 8708

Auto

-6.8 0%

Teleop

81.0 63%

Endgame

55.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35pts

Blue projected score139.4pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.4
Score range: -4–178
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 214.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

135.5Season APEX415.1

29.6Auto-6.8

2.1Teleop81

1.6Endgame55

3Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	49
teleop	13	113
endgame	16	42
foul	5	0
total	49	204

Result

Final score

49 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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