Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.12 – 25.9

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.9 ±11.7

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 125.2Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 35.13Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 121.79Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.7 ±13.3

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 20.88Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX -20.04Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 25.06Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 95, 8421, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 95, 8421, 319

Auto

32.4 12%

Teleop

162.9 58%

Endgame

83.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10066, 10937, 138

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10066, 10937, 138

Auto

30.4 100%

Teleop

-11.6 0%

Endgame

6.0 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.8 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score282.1pts

Blue projected score25.9pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 256.2
Score range: -12–320
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 211.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.9Season APEX207.7

32.4Auto30.4

162.9Teleop-11.6

83.6Endgame6

10Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	8
teleop	202	28
endgame	50	16
foul	0	10
total	279	62

Result

Final score

279 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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