Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.41 – 161.25

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

310 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.4 ±11.7

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 241.17Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX -9.21Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6690MV roboPride

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 34.45Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.7 ±11

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 76.06Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 67.76Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 17.43Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 195, 9096, 6690

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 195, 9096, 6690

Auto

48.0 18%

Teleop

144.6 54%

Endgame

75.6 28%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1512, 2342, 10910

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1512, 2342, 10910

Auto

8.3 5%

Teleop

99.5 63%

Endgame

49.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score266.4pts

Blue projected score161.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.2
Score range: 123–304
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 210.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.4Season APEX351.7

48Auto8.3

144.6Teleop99.5

75.6Endgame49.3

10Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	32
teleop	198	76
endgame	53	54
foul	0	15
total	310	177

Result

Final score

310 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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