Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.84 – 191.93

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 331

Prediction missed · off by 88.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.6 ±11.4

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 78.41Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 50.32Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 70.11Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.9 ±11.1

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX -15.02Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 15.59Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 191.36Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 6933, 2523

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 6933, 2523

Auto

58.7 30%

Teleop

98.5 50%

Endgame

41.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11269, 6153, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11269, 6153, 5687

Auto

54.6 27%

Teleop

124.1 62%

Endgame

22.0 11%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score198.8pts

Blue projected score191.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.9
Score range: 154–237
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 492 vs event baseline 209.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.6Season APEX497.9

58.7Auto54.6

98.5Teleop124.1

41.1Endgame22

7Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	107
teleop	72	189
endgame	57	35
foul	0	0
total	161	331

Result

Final score

161 – 331

Prediction missed · off by 88.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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