Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.24 – 268.09

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.5 ±14.9

10108Hazard5

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX -2.02Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 39.58Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX -13.32Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.7 ±11.7

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 24.17Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 128.65Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 115.27Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10108, 1729, 1247

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10108, 1729, 1247

Auto

24.3 100%

Teleop

-10.0 0%

Endgame

8.7 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10066, 319, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10066, 319, 839

Auto

22.0 9%

Teleop

150.8 59%

Endgame

84.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.2pts

Blue projected score268.1pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -243.8
Score range: -14–306
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 210.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.5Season APEX371.7

24.3Auto22

-10Teleop150.8

8.7Endgame84.8

22Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	47
teleop	75	127
endgame	0	56
foul	0	5
total	96	235

Result

Final score

96 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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