Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.16 – 63.98

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322 ±13.9

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 79.44Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 108.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11468Lisbon Panther Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 7.48Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210 ±12.2

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 30.72Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 18.35Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10138VikingBot

Season APEX 39Event APEX 14.91Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1512, 8085, 11468

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1512, 8085, 11468

Auto

27.2 14%

Teleop

126.3 66%

Endgame

37.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 138, 8708, 10138

/ 100 compat

Projected

64 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 138, 8708, 10138

Auto

19.3 35%

Teleop

23.2 43%

Endgame

12.0 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195.2pts

Blue projected score64pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.2
Score range: 26–233
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 213.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322Season APEX210

27.2Auto19.3

126.3Teleop23.2

37.9Endgame12

34Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	15
teleop	78	11
endgame	51	21
foul	0	0
total	156	47

Result

Final score

156 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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