Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

337.81 – 287.91

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 373

Prediction missed · off by 121 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.5 ±10.5

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 150.34Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 7.18Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 180.29Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.4 ±11.2

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 10.34Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 50.42Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 227.15Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 95, 11269, 1073

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 95, 11269, 1073

Auto

30.8 9%

Teleop

203.0 61%

Endgame

97.0 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10910, 2523, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10910, 2523, 195

Auto

62.1 22%

Teleop

142.3 51%

Endgame

75.8 27%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score337.8pts

Blue projected score287.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.9
Score range: 250–376
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 554 vs event baseline 211.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.5Season APEX499.4

30.8Auto62.1

203Teleop142.3

97Endgame75.8

13Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	104
teleop	81	182
endgame	77	82
foul	0	5
total	181	373

Result

Final score

181 – 373

Prediction missed · off by 121 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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