Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

280.62 – 305.53

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 70.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.5 ±12

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 253.53Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 45Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX -17.91Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.7 ±11.7

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 216.74Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 24.4Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 64.39Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 8421, 1247

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 8421, 1247

Auto

62.1 22%

Teleop

147.5 52%

Endgame

72.5 26%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5687, 10945, 6933

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5687, 10945, 6933

Auto

95.8 31%

Teleop

161.2 52%

Endgame

51.9 17%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score280.6pts

Blue projected score305.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.9
Score range: 243–344
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 445 vs event baseline 211.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.5Season APEX415.7

62.1Auto95.8

147.5Teleop161.2

72.5Endgame51.9

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	70
teleop	132	79
endgame	91	25
foul	0	0
total	271	174

Result

Final score

271 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 70.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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