Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.69 – 135.89

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.1 ±12.7

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 81.19Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX -13.77Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 30.27Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.2 ±10.8

9101Green Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 26.07Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 77.56Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 32.26Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2342, 10937, 6153

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2342, 10937, 6153

Auto

15.1 16%

Teleop

52.3 55%

Endgame

28.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9101, 4909, 11175

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9101, 4909, 11175

Auto

28.2 21%

Teleop

100.6 74%

Endgame

6.7 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.7pts

Blue projected score135.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.2
Score range: 60–174
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 212.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.1Season APEX316.2

15.1Auto28.2

52.3Teleop100.6

28.1Endgame6.7

83Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	7
teleop	11	85
endgame	1	40
foul	0	0
total	28	132

Result

Final score

28 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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