Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.53 – 47.14

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 80.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564 ±10.5

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 247.03Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX -11.67Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 46.17Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.2 ±15.3

11468Lisbon Panther Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 13.14Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10138VikingBot

Season APEX 39Event APEX 16Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 18Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6329, 10910, 6933

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6329, 10910, 6933

Auto

88.9 32%

Teleop

106.2 38%

Endgame

81.9 30%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11468, 10138, 11269

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11468, 10138, 11269

Auto

19.1 45%

Teleop

24.0 57%

Endgame

-1.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.74 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score281.5pts

Blue projected score47.1pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 234.4
Score range: 9–320
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 212.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564Season APEX220.2

88.9Auto19.1

106.2Teleop24

81.9Endgame-1

68Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	10
teleop	205	1
endgame	107	4
foul	0	0
total	411	15

Result

Final score

411 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 80.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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